The Economic Data Institute has been producing Economic and Social data since 1974, and the databases and products shown here are part of the EDI datasets.

   The basis of EDI data is the automated interview methodology which provides a relatively low cost (per question and per survey); and that is a very effective benefit to users of the data as they can access very competitive databases, online products, and other information products.

    EDI databases are based on wholly original research. There is little confidence in government data, trade statistics, company data, credit reports, and indeed many other data sources; and thus one has to approach the problem of getting consistent intelligence and data from a number of standpoints. There are extensive verification and security checks built into EDI survey methodology to ensure accuracy and confidentiality.

   EDI understand that the only reliable way to analyse and evaluate the economic and social data, in any given geographic area, is by conducting statistically accurate analyses of the Product and Service Users (meaning both the Public and Commercial users), the Product and Service Suppliers, the Financial and Economic aspects of the Supply and Use of those Product and Services, the Financial Resources available and the Providers of financing, the Distribution Channels for those Product and Services in each geographic area; and then the End Users or Consumers of the Products and Services in each geographic area. Surveys are also necessary for the Competitive Sources and Suppliers of those Product and Services in each geographic area. By correlating the results of these analyses one can provide highly accurate data and analyses of situation in Economic and Social terms within each geographical area.

    EDI have developed the systems and software used to collect and analyse data over a period of 45 years; and, as information technology had advanced, the collection and analysis of that data had become increasingly sophisticated, and indeed less expensive to produce.

    The benefit of EDI databases and reports is that they are entirely computerized - from initial survey interviewing, to the finished database, to the finally report; and this means that the users are assured of a uniform standard and quality with all the data products.

    The computerization, development of the methodology and the programs and modelling has evolved over the decades and EDI believe that the generation of the information products are the most advanced in the world; and no other economic and social data organisation has such advanced techniques or such thorough methodology.

Data Sources

   Data on the information targets, being government or commercial Suppliers of Products and Services, the internal operations and effectiveness of those Suppliers, the Products and Services supplied by each Distribution operation, the Competitiveness of Products and Services available, and the Consumers and Users of those Products and Services, include:

   The Input Level:

   An analysis of the input materials, supplies and services bought or consumed by Suppliers of Products and Services, the type of goods or services bought, value of products bought, quantities purchased, prices paid, scheduling of purchases, et cetera.

   The Process Level:

   An exploration of the internal processes at the Suppliers of Products and Services which combined the Input products with the procedures that manipulate the inner components (Financial & Capital resources, Management, Labor, Equipment usage, Physical processes, Product production, Premises & Locations, Distribution, Marketing, etcetera) to produce the Output product - whether that be physical products or services.

    The Supply Level:  

   An investigation into the Alternative Sources of Products and Services, and the Major Suppliers or Operations and their relative product and service offerings, costs or prices, performance, quality, et cetera, in relation, and relative to, the other suppliers within the geographic area, nationally, and internationally.

    The Output Level:

   An appraisal of the interaction of the Sources of Products and Services with the Users and Consumers, the Supply Elements, the Problems encountered, and the Opportunities taken or missed by the Suppliers within the existing geographic area, or the geographic area potentially available in the future.

   For example, the usage or consumption data provided in the databases will be based on three independent sources:-

     i. A statistically accurate survey of End Users and Consumers of Products and Services.

    ii. A statistically accurate survey of the Distribution System used to service those End Users and Consumers.

   iii. A survey of all major Suppliers and Sources of Products and Services.

   By gaining information from these operational and consumption levels one can produce a very accurate picture of the market.

Processing of Data

   In addition to the on-line research and the gathering of public, commercial, and private, information, the results of survey interviews are entered by the interviewers directly into the database and after each interview session the results are directly processed by one of the main servers; and this enables the data to be current and dynamic, and therefore monitor any real-time events.

Forecasting Models

   The databases and subsequent reports are entirely composed by highly sophisticated software using the base data provided by the various surveys and from other sources. The software then constructs the output databases (and the reports) which are then supplied online, and it is these dynamic databases which are supplied to the users who thereby receive the most up-to-date information.

Database Generation

   The forecasts are produced using an extremely comprehensive range of forecasting models which take the best features from a wide range of forecasting models and blend these into an interactive matrix which ensures a high level of certainty in forecasts produced.

Automatic Up-Dating

   Databases and reports are automatically up-dated by the system when new surveys are completed or Supply / Supplier / User conditions change; and thus a new forecast is produced. This is done as often as may be necessary (and especially with Consumer/Public, Seasonal or High Technology products and services where up-dates are done weekly); albeit, the majority of the databases need only to be updated monthly.

Input From Consultants & Specialists

   When dealing with Products and Services for Consumers and the General Public it is always necessary to understand both the Economic coupled with the Social environment and trends which impact those General Public Users, and therefore surveys are also conducted amongst those with specialist knowledge and information of both the Users and their specific geographic areas.

Survey Methodology

   The only reliable way to analyse and evaluate the situation regarding Supply, Suppliers, and Users is by conducting statistically accurate analyses of each of those elements in the supply, distribution, and consumption, of the Products and Services. By correlating the results of these analyses one can provide highly accurate data and analyses on each of the geographic areas being covered.

   End User / Consumer Surveys

   The most important part of the base data collection is the End User / Consumer Surveys, as these reveal the true nature of the supply / consumption situation.

   The User Surveys conducted use the following formula:-

      i. Selection of Interview Panels. The prospective interviewee panel is selected from lists which are maintained on named respondent in each of the geographic areas.

     ii. Pilot Survey (5% of Sample). A Pilot Survey is conducted with 5% of the sample to evaluate and modify the survey and isolate potential response problems.

    iii. Main Survey (90% of Sample). The Main Survey is conducted amongst 90% of the sample using the modified questionnaire.

     iv. Check Survey (5% of Sample). A Check Survey is conducted with the remaining 5% of the sample to check outstanding points and verify any problem areas.

      v. User Survey Panels. Where telephone surveys are not appropriate, personal or face-to-face surveys are conducted with End Users of the product or service.

   Telephone interviews are conducted by interviewers who place the information received directly into the relevant database. The data is then transferred directly to the main servers for batch processing and output to the relevant databases. Personal interviews are recorded in real-time and are then transferred to, and processed by, the relevant programming algorithms.

   Sample Structure

   It is a standard technique of the surveys of Users, Distribution Channels, and Suppliers, to interview three levels of respondents:-

       i. the majority of the sample is taken from respondents CURRENTLY using/supplying the product or service,

      ii. a sample is taken of respondents FORMERLY using/supplying the product or service, and

     iii. a sample is taken from respondents who are POTENTIALLY likely to be using/supplying the product or service in the future.

    This method gives a very accurate picture of the development of the product or service over a period of time.

    Thus it is possible to evaluate and analyse the reasons:-

      i.   why respondents currently supply, distribute or use the product or service,

     ii.   why respondents have ceased to be involved with the product or service, and lastly,

    iii.   why respondents are planning to become involved in the product or service.

   Total Survey Sample

    The samples of the Suppliers, Distribution Channels and End Users are composed of a stratified random sample. The stratification of the sample reflects analysis and modelling of frequency variables (e.g. level of consumption and/or the value of product flow), sample dispersion (e.g. type of respondents in the universe), distribution skewness, product correlations, regression, probability and significance, time projection and trends.

   Sample Sizes

    There are guaranteed minimum VALID sample sizes for each of the databases. Sample sizes vary from both product or service criteria and the geographic area covered. Details of the sample sizes for each type of product or service can be found in the current Methodology Manual.

   Distribution Channel Surveys

    The Distribution Channel Surveys use the same methodology, Interview Method and Survey Analysis as do the End User Surveys.

    Sample sizes for the Distribution Channel Surveys are based on a percentage of the total number of operations distributing the product/service concerned. The percentage interviewed depends on the product in question and the complexity of the product.

   Suppliers Surveys

    The Surveys of Product Suppliers and Service Providers use the same methodology as the surveys above.

    The sample of Suppliers represents at least 70 to 75% of the total universe. The surveys of Suppliers yield confirmation of supplier output to the target distributors or consumers, product information, financial data and future plans. Suppliers are not always regarded as being a reliable source of information, as they tend to be keen to promote their marketing message, and not necessarily divulge their real performance or concerns.

   Competitor Surveys

    The Surveys of Competitors use the same methodology as the surveys above.

    The sample of current or potential Competitors represents at least 70 to 75% of the total universe. The surveys of Competitors yield verification of product output & specifications, financial data and future product and market plans. Competitors are considered a reasonable source of information on End User / Consumers as they are inclined to promote their future plans, marketing activities and product performance as well as their expertise in market and competitive conditions.

Database Matrix and Interactions

   It is necessary when forecasting supply, product and service, and consumption trends to use a matrix of related databases in order to evaluate and analyse the movement of products and services due to supply and demand, product and consumption forces, product life cycles, product obsolescence and substitution, new product developments, technical and technological innovations, market saturation, new markets, market and product segmentation, et cetera.

Forecast and Planning Models

    In order to accurately analyse and forecast the above issues, a battery of forecasting models is used.

    These models are interactive and simultaneous and draw from common databases which are designed to be critical to the product/service concerned.

    This database management methodology ensures that databases and reports are extremely accurate as they use the most discrete and detailed supplier, distribution, product, and consumer, sectors as the foundation, and then, builds up the database step by step.

    The success of a Forecast or Planning model, for periods in excess of two years, depends on the ability of that model to analyse and evaluate a series of interrelated levels of social, economic and supply-side activities. Each level tends to be equally critical to the forecasting method and thus accuracy must be maintained at all levels. The Forecast / Planning Models used are compiled from a number of programs and seek to interact with the various levels of social / economic / supply-side activity, not only through a series of forecasting routines, but also via a number of refining procedures: the distillate of which represents the final Forecast.

    The complexity of the consumption / product / supply situation, and the desired accuracy of the prediction, dictates how many of the battery models are used. The more complicated the supply, product, or consumption scenario, the greater the need for accuracy and thus more battery models are used.

    The levels of supply / consumption activity are as follows:

       i. The Operational Cell (the area in which Users can access the Suppliers of products or services)

      ii. The Geographic Area (the administrative area covered by the specific database)

     iii. The Sources of the supply of Products or Services

      iv. The Suppliers of Products or Services

       v. The Distribution Channels of Products or Services

      vi. The Products or Services

     vii. The Competitive Products or Services

    viii. The Users or Consumer

1. OECD Econometric Models

    The model program used is the standard OECD Econometric program which has been developed by the OECD Department of Economics and Statistics. The programming utilizes a number of databases, which have been produced for many decades and therefore provide significant possibilities for regressional analysis. The number and scope of the multinational econometric databases used has expanded enormously over time.

2. PIMS Type Models

    These models use supply critical Multiple Regressional Analysis program which identifies those variables affecting suppliers, products, their consumption, and the associated financials.

    3. Business Environment Forecast Models

    Three models are used to forecast business environment and these are specific to certain levels of economic / commercial activity:

    Cross Impact Simulation (KSIM): This is a program for interactive variables and is used to forecast economic environments in an international and national context and provides a representation of changes in a system of variables over time; especially trends, events and structural relationships. The program is widely used in many government organisations and many multinational companies.

    Trends Impact Analysis (TIA): TIA is used for problems involving changes in trends at the Supply-Side level and produces a representation of changes in trend/s and event/s. A further representation of probabilities is also produced. The program is widely used by multinational suppliers of products and services.

    Cross Impact Analysis (CIA): This is a program designed for use in solving project level problems, including products/services developments, and deals with a representation of cumulative probabilities of an event over time. The model investigates events, structural relationships and probabilities and is successfully used by many multinational suppliers of products and services.

4. Consumer / End User Values Model

    The use of Consumer Values models has two purposes. Firstly because it extends and correlates market behaviour beyond such external forces as User Solvency / Finances or Demographics and secondly, it enhances the predictability of market Behaviour by providing insight into why Users/Consumers act as they do. There are trend projections for 14 years for all Consumer Values; some 34 to 40 major cells. These values affect the consumption of definable items and products. In the case of high value products/services one additional value is used, namely, the monthly Business Confidence Monitor, which seeks to quantify consumption trends amongst users and buyers.

5. Product Life Cycle Models

    The Product Life Cycle Model uses the normal innovation / diffusion Gompertz Function with the added advantage of a matrix of supply-side critical correlation.

6. BPI & QI Models

    It is essential to effectively measure the relative spending power of various consumption segments and geographic areas; this is done with a Buying Power Index and a Quality Index. BPI is also useful for determining how effectively a supplier uses its operational procedures. QI is used to analyse the ability of a consumer sector or geographic area to consume products/services with a high discretionary index.

    Additionally, a number of other programs may have to be used, including:

       i. Consumption Saturation Index;

      ii. Supply costs;

     iii. Recorder points;

      iv. MNR:MC ratios

7. Information Efficiency Models

    These models evaluate the effect of consumption -v- information diffusion relationships over time and are designed to investigate those functions of information diffusion efficiency which affect usage and consumption to provide predictions on the actions of those factors over time.

    The main functions of the model are:

       i. The Consumption Decay Constant, which measures information diffusion effect over time.

      ii. The Usage Saturation Level, which investigates the effectiveness of the information mix and the asymptotic values of the information diffusion.

     iii. The Usage Constant, which gives the ratio between consumption -v- information diffusion.

    The above models provide the Coefficient of Information Efficiency at a given consumption -v- information diffusion function.

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